Hi Andrew, great strategy section which addresses some confusion I too have had with the concept of there not being much value in betting into draws. One of your comments does raise another question though…:
you said that one of the benefits of low equity hands is that they can outperform their equity by bluffing, and that even if a bluff only has a 1% chance of working that still gives you more equity than the 0% equity you have if you check. My confusion is that if the bluff costs you more than 1.01% of the pot then you lose money on that bluff (similar to if you bet 1/2 pot and get called more than 1/3 of the time). This makes me think that the ability to bluff in and of itself isn’t necessarily profitable, as sometimes it’s costing you more to make that bluff than the value of the equity you gain by bluffing. Probably I’m just not very good at picking my bluff spots but I would love to hear you or Nate’s (or anyone else’s!) take on this.